How HoopIQ Works
A data-driven approach to NBA player prop analysis.
What HoopIQ Does
HoopIQ analyzes every NBA player prop available each game night across eight major sportsbooks. Instead of relying on gut instinct, we use a statistical model that combines recent player performance, opponent matchup data, pace-of-play factors, and line movement to identify props where the odds are in your favor.
Every prop is scored, ranked, and given a clear verdict so you can make faster, more informed decisions.
The Composite Score
Each prop receives a composite quality score from 0 to 100. This is not just one metric — it blends multiple signals into a single number that represents overall prop quality.
What Goes Into the Score
- •Expected Value (EV%) — how much edge exists versus the market line
- •Hit Rate — how often the player has cleared (or stayed under) this line recently
- •Consistency — low variance in the player’s recent stat line (less boom-or-bust)
- •Line Movement — whether sharp money or market moves support the direction
A score of 80+ means multiple signals agree strongly. A score below 40 means the data doesn’t support the bet.
What Verdicts Mean
Every prop gets a verdict badge based on its composite score. Here is what each tier means:
The strongest signal the model produces. Multiple factors align with high confidence. These are rare and represent the best opportunities of the night.
A solid edge where the data clearly favors one side. Good hit rate, positive EV, and supporting matchup context.
A modest edge exists but with less certainty. The data slightly favors this side, but some signals are mixed.
No meaningful edge either way. The prop is priced fairly based on available data. Consider skipping.
The data suggests this prop is poorly priced against you. A negative-EV situation you should avoid or bet the opposite side.
What EV% Means
EV stands for Expected Value. It represents the theoretical profit margin on a bet if you placed it many times over.
Positive EV does not guarantee a win on any single bet. It means that over a large sample, you expect to come out ahead.
Probability Estimate
The model generates its own probability that a prop will hit, independent of the sportsbook’s odds. When the model’s probability is significantly higher than the market’s implied probability, that gap is your edge.
Example: A sportsbook prices a prop at -110 (implied 52.4%). HoopIQ’s model estimates the true probability at 61%. That ~8.6% gap is the edge, reflected in a positive EV and a higher verdict.
How Top 5 Picks Are Selected
Each game night, HoopIQ surfaces the five highest-quality props from all available games. These are not random picks — they go through several filters:
- •Minimum sample size of recent games to ensure statistical reliability
- •Injury and availability checks — players who are out or questionable are excluded
- •Minutes threshold — bench players with inconsistent minutes are filtered
- •Ranked by composite score, with the top five surfaced to the dashboard
Top 5 picks are available to all users, including free-tier members.