Bankroll Management
A winning strategy with bad sizing still loses money.
Why Bankroll Management Matters
Even a profitable betting strategy will lose money without proper position sizing. If you bet too aggressively, a normal losing streak can wipe out your bankroll before the edge has time to play out. If you bet too conservatively, you leave profit on the table.
Bankroll management is the bridge between having an edge and actually realizing it over time.
Unit-Based Betting
A “unit” is a fixed dollar amount that represents your standard bet size. The most common approach:
Using units instead of dollar amounts keeps your risk consistent. As your bankroll grows (or shrinks), you adjust the dollar value of a unit accordingly.
What Quarter-Kelly Means
HoopIQ’s Suggested Size feature uses a quarter-Kelly criterion to recommend bet sizes. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal bet size based on your edge and the odds offered.
Full Kelly is too aggressive for real-world betting — it assumes perfect edge estimation. Quarter-Kelly scales it down to 25% of the theoretical optimum, providing a cushion for model uncertainty while still sizing bigger on stronger edges.
Why Quarter-Kelly?
- •Survives inevitable model mis-estimations
- •Reduces variance and drawdowns significantly
- •Still sizes up on higher-confidence edges
- •Industry standard for professional bettors
How to Interpret Suggested Units
HoopIQ suggests bet sizes in units. Here is what the range means:
Modest expected value. Worth a small bet if it fits your game plan.
A solid, normal-sized bet. The baseline for most confident plays.
Higher confidence from the model. Multiple signals align.
The strongest edges the model identifies. Still capped to manage risk.
Risk Management Basics
Never chase losses
After a losing night, stick to your normal unit sizes. Doubling down to “get it back” is the fastest way to blow a bankroll.
Set daily and weekly limits
Decide in advance the maximum you'll risk per day (e.g., 5-8 units) and per week. When you hit the limit, stop.
Track everything
You can't improve what you don't measure. Log every bet, every result. Look for patterns in your wins and losses.
Expect losing streaks
Even at a 55% hit rate, streaks of 5-7 consecutive losses are statistically normal. Size your bets so this doesn't hurt you.
Track Your Record with My Bets
HoopIQ Pro members have access to the My Bets tracker. When you tap a prop card, you can log the bet with your stake and odds. After the game, HoopIQ automatically grades it as a HIT, MISS, or PUSH.
Over time, your My Bets page builds a full P&L record — total profit, ROI, hit rate by prop type, and more. This data helps you refine which props you’re strongest on and where to focus.