Reading Props
Everything you need to know to understand NBA player props.
What Player Props Are
A player prop is a bet on a specific player’s statistical performance in a game. The sportsbook sets a line (a number), and you bet whether the player goes over or under that number.
Example: LeBron James Points — Over/Under 25.5. If LeBron scores 26 or more, the Over hits. If he scores 25 or fewer, the Under hits. The .5 ensures there is no push.
Common Prop Types
Sportsbooks offer props on individual stats and stat combinations:
Combo props (PRA, PR, PA, etc.) add multiple stats together. They tend to have higher lines and can be more predictable because variance in one stat is offset by the others.
How to Read Odds
American odds tell you how much you win relative to your bet:
Bet $110 to win $100 in profit. This is the standard “vig” or juice that sportsbooks charge. Most props are priced around -110 on both sides.
Bet $100 to win $150 in profit. Plus-money odds mean the sportsbook thinks this outcome is less likely, so you get paid more if it hits.
Bet $150 to win $100 in profit. The sportsbook considers this outcome very likely, so the payout is smaller.
Tip: To convert odds to implied probability — for negative odds, divide the absolute value by itself plus 100. For -110: 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.4%.
What Line Movement Means
Lines are not static. Sportsbooks adjust them based on betting activity, injury news, and other factors. When a line moves, it tells you something:
Line moves up
If a points line goes from 24.5 to 25.5, money or sharp action is flowing to the Over. The sportsbook raised the bar to balance their exposure.
Line moves down
If the line drops from 25.5 to 24.5, Under bets are dominant — possibly due to injury news, rest announcements, or sharp money on the Under.
HoopIQ tracks line movement across all eight sportsbooks and factors it into the composite score. A prop where the line moves in the direction of the model’s pick is a stronger signal.
Over vs Under
Both sides can be profitable — the key is whether the line is set too high or too low relative to the player’s expected output.
When to take the Over
When the player’s recent average is well above the line, the matchup favors high output (fast pace, weak defense at this stat), and there are no concerning factors like injury or minutes restriction.
When to take the Under
When the player’s recent performance is below the line, the opponent is elite defensively at this stat, the game environment suggests low pace, or the player’s minutes have been trending down.
HoopIQ shows both sides and tells you which direction the model favors. Don’t be afraid to bet Unders — they hit just as often and are frequently undervalued by the public.
What Consensus Line Means
HoopIQ pulls lines from eight major sportsbooks and calculates a consensus line — the median value across all books. This gives you a stable reference point, smoothing out outliers from any single book.
Sportsbooks Tracked
When one book’s line differs significantly from the consensus, it can signal a line shopping opportunity — you may find better odds on that book for the side you want.